Kevin Bae

Non-Social in a Socially Networked World

Which is it? Is Russia failing in its invasion or is it slowly succeeding?

Most of the news in the United States is pumping the Putin is a crazy man looking to put back together to old Soviet Union. He’s gone crazy and his invasion is failing miserably because Kiev or Kyiv (whichever country wins this war will decide) still stands and Russia has not yet taken over.

But, there is another narrative. It’s the narrative that says Putin is playing the long game in this war and while he certainly tried to put a quick end to the invasion he was well prepared to continue on if Russia encountered more resistance than they expected.

The Russian offensive is taking place on four separate fronts. On a fifth front, in eastern Ukraine, which Putin declared independent last week, Russian forces are tying down Ukrainian troops that are needed elsewhere.

The bulk of the Russian forces are advancing southward from Belarus to Kyiv.

Russian advance forces, including air, mobile and reconnaissance troops, have been engaged with Ukrainian troops outside of Kyiv since the start of the war.

A massive column of Russian troops, estimated at over 40 miles long, is just 20 miles north of Kyiv, and is likely assembling to surround the capital.

If Russian forces can take Kyiv and push southward to link up with forces on the Crimean front, thus splitting Ukraine in two, it would be a major blow to the Zelensky government.

What matters more than a handful of setbacks is that Russian forces have pushed 70 miles into contested terrain in less than a week and are on the outskirts of the capital.

Putin is NOT crazy and the Russian invasion is NOT failing, writes military analyst BILL ROGGIO  | Daily Mail Online

I don’t know which is true but the latter seems more plausible than the former. As the war goes on we’ll find out. From the map of Ukraine it seems Putin might want to cut the country in half along the Dnieper River. It is a natural border that splits the country in two. The east part of the country appears to support Russia and that may be the endgame.